In his pursuit of reason, effectiveness and happiness, Michel de Montaigne (1533-1592) devoted extensive efforts to assess risks; he recorded his reflections and conclusions in essays like “On one saying of Caesar.”

Montaigne’s refers to a saying from Caesar just to start his discussion about risk. He wants to establish the role played by reason and luck in human achievement and happiness.

Here is the saying from Caesar that Montaigne is employing to start the discussion: “It is not for the well-born to go to war, but for the born fortunate, because participants in war will find it hard to escape misfortune.”

Let me first clarify that Montaigne’s wording “for the well-born” does not only refer to aristocrats or wealthy individuals. Montaigne also means people of ability and virtue, people who possess skills and work hard. He is referring to any person who can expect success in life under normal circumstances.

Montaigne uses this particular saying of Caesar because it is making a striking comparison between peacetime and wartime. In peacetime, that is, in normal circumstances, one can expect skilful, hard-working people to do well. One can expect them to do far better than incompetent, lazy people.

Incompetent, lazy people might purchase a lottery ticket and win a large price. That’s conceivable but highly unlikely. The odds are heavily tilted against individuals who do not possess skills and do not desire to work. Winning at the lottery is not a sound strategy for succeeding in life.

Montaigne’s essay “On one saying of Caesar”

Montaigne then points to the second part in Caesar’s saying, the part that refers to wartime. The odds change massively during wartime because random death invalidates the value of productive skills and hard work.

Even a genius computer programmer can get randomly shot in a battle. His knowledge and dedication to productiveness are irrelevant under mortar fire. There were no mortars in Caesar’s lifetime but battles were equally unpredictable. Random death increases the value of good luck.

Montaigne draws the conclusion that, in normal times, one can trust productiveness to work in one’s favour. He says that fortune present us challenges and opportunities, but that it is up to us to confront the challenges and seize the opportunities.

Nonetheless, Montaigne warns us against trusting reason to the maximum extent. Even if you develop skills and work very hard, luck still plays a role. Circumstances might turn against you even if your plans are well-thought.

Montaigne formulates his warning in the following way: “Men believe that they control their own fortune through their own industry and foresight, but those cannot always counteract malign influences.”

Indeed, it does not pay to be arrogant because bad luck will always play a role. Nevertheless, I have observed that the role played by luck tends to diminish over time. The value of skills and hard work tends to win in the long run.

Michel de Montaigne’s thoughts on merit and fortune

To illustrate his point, Montaigne mentions the Battle of Phallus (48 BC), where Caesar defeated Pompey despite the fact that Pompey’s army was more numerous and Pompey was an excellent general. Caesar’s men fought bravely, and on top of that, they were lucky.

I take the Battle of Phallus as a warning against situations in which the odds are highly uncertain. You want to avoid those situations because luck can easily turn against you. In normal life, you can avoid taking excessive risks.

There is no need to take excessive risks. It is much better to trust the compound effect of skills and steady work. Sooner or later, those should deliver good results. Given enough time, it’s better to choose solid projects, even if the payoff is delayed.

Montaigne overestimates the role played by luck, when he says “for the most part, people succeed by chance.” I contest his conclusion as exaggerated.

In peacetime, Montaigne’s conclusion is not aligned with reality. His own life is the proof. His hard work as a magistrate in Bordeaux built him an impeccable reputation, which later brought him many advantages. It was not a matter of luck.

Montaigne tried to support his argument by pointing to the battles of Alexander the Great (356-323 BC) and how he was lucky that his adversaries lacked unity. If they had presented a common front, they would have emerged victorious.

I find Montaigne’s argument rather weak because Alexander already knew that his adversaries lacked unity. He engaged in battles where he had a fair chance of winning, and increased his chances through optimal positioning and military prowess. It was not a matter solely of luck.

Montaigne fails to strengthen his argument by pointing to the battles fought and won by Francis I (1494-1547), king of France. Luck played a role in those victories, but Francis I had put the odds in his favour by formalising alliances with other powerful individuals. It was not a matter solely of luck.

Michel de Montaigne’s thoughts on success and happiness

Indeed, sometimes luck plays a determinant role, like in the case when Montaigne fell from a horse and suffered only minor injuries. He recounts the story as “a narrow escape from death” but is falsely assuming that such accidents always lead to death.

Montaigne calls for modesty and compassion, arguing that our own success is partially attributable to good luck, while other people’s failures are partially attributable to bad luck.

If you accept Montaigne’s arguments, you should practise humility and charity every day of your life, giving them a high priority. I however find Montaigne’s assessment of the role of luck rather inaccurate.

I am all for modesty, but I would not assume that every sick or unfortunate person has not played any part in his problems. Sometimes, misfortune is fully attributed to bad luck. Other times, the victim has brought trouble to himself by choosing a harmful lifestyle and taking excessive risks.

What is the right balance between personal merit and luck? My experience allows me to affirm confidently that hard work, skill acquisition, and perseverance tend to pay off. It is not an infallible recipe for success, but it works more often than not.

Montaigne was right to say that “luck weaves many threads beyond our control,” but his examples refer mainly to wartime, were the normal odds are distorted.

In everyday situations, that is, during peacetime, luck plays a role far less important than productiveness. Skill acquisition and hard work prove, most of the time, a solid formula for success and happiness.

If you are interested in applying rational ideas to addressing all kind of situations here and now, I recommend you my book “Rationality is the way to happiness.”